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NL Central: All eyes now on Oswalt

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a 38-56 record and a 14-game deficit to make up in the National League Central standings, it's safe to say the Houston Astros aren't going anywhere this season. But will Roy Oswalt?

With the Seattle Mariners having shipped away Cliff Lee earlier this month, Oswalt now becomes the most accomplished starting pitcher available at the upcoming July 31 trade deadline. And while it's clear the Astros are looking to move their longtime ace in order to accelerate the rebuilding process, there are a few outside factors that make it less certain as to whether or not they'll be able to pull off an acceptable deal.

One would think that the market would be great for a three-time All-Star and former League Championship Series MVP with a career 143-81 record, but Houston has had some difficulty in finding potential takers for Oswalt. The veteran right-hander's contract -- he's owed around $25 million on a pact that runs through the 2011 season -- looms as one obstacle, and the Astros don't seem inclined to pay a good chunk of that remaining salary unless they can get a top-tier prospect in return.

Oswalt also has a full no-trade clause that most insiders believe he'd only be willing to waive for a select number of teams, which would likely take such pitching-needy contenders as the Tigers and White Sox out of the mix. The Rangers, whom Oswalt did have an interest in joining, are also no longer an option with Lee now in the fold.

In essence, Oswalt's suitors figure to be limited to the big spenders able to take on his hefty contract, and that select pool could be further reduced if teams like the Red Sox and Mets opt not to pursue a starting pitcher at the deadline. The Yankees may be more intrigued, however, now that one-time Astro Andy Pettitte will miss at least a month after straining his groin in his latest start, and the Phillies have been mentioned as a possible fit as well.

Oswalt has done his best to enhance his value in recent weeks. The 32-year-old racked up 16 scoreless innings over his final two starts prior to the All-Star break, including a one-hit shutout against Pittsburgh on July 8, and has produced a quality start in 15 of his 19 assignments this year. He was forced to exit Sunday's outing against the Pirates after four innings due to taking a line drive off his left ankle, but isn't expected to miss any additional time.

BREWERS' HART ON THE BLOCK AS WELL

Another NL Central player on the radar of playoff-hopeful teams is Milwaukee Brewers slugger Corey Hart, and for good reason. The power-hitting outfielder is presently among the NL leaders with 22 homers, while his 70 RBI trails only Philadelphia's Ryan Howard for tops among Senior Circuit players. With the Brewers still treading water in the division race and Hart in line for a sizeable raise through arbitration next season, it's quite conceivable the 2010 All-Star will be playing in another city come August.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported last week that the Giants have considerable interest in Hart, and the Padres and Rays are also believed to be high on the athletic 28-year-old. All three of those teams are well stocked with talented young pitching, a commodity Brewers general manager Doug Melvin is coveting as he attempts to shore up one of his club's most glaring weaknesses.

Hart, who started in right field for the NL in last Tuesday's All-Star Game, hasn't seemed to be too bothered by the persistent rumors. He went 7-for-16 with five RBI in Milwaukee's four-game series at Atlanta following the break and had hit safely in nine straight contests before going 0-for-4 in Monday's matchup at Pittsburgh. In 17 games thus far in July, Hart is batting .319 (23- for-72) with four home runs.

"They told me he was a streaky guy," manager Ken Macha recently told the Brewers' official site. "This has been a long streak, so maybe it's a trend and not a streak."

Hart was one of three Milwaukee players, along with left fielder Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo, selected to this year's NL All-Star squad. Gallardo was unable to participate because of an oblique strain that's landed him on the disabled list, but the standout right-hander is expected to be activated to pitch Thursday's finale of a four-game series with the Pirates.

CARDINALS COME OUT FLYING AFTER THE BREAK

The St. Louis Cardinals were able to regain first place in the division after coming through with an impressive four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. The performance also continued a history of success for the team under longtime skipper Tony La Russa to begin the season's second half.

The Cardinals' official site pointed out prior to Sunday's 5-4 victory over the Dodgers that St. Louis has won 12 of its 14 series that have immediately followed the All-Star break under La Russa's direction. After posting a 7-1 decision in Thursday's opener, the defending NL Central champions are an astounding 13-1 in their initial game after the hiatus.

St. Louis followed up its dismantling of the Dodgers with back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and has now come out on top in seven consecutive contests, the franchise's longest win streak since a seven-gamer during its world championship season of 2006. The surge, which came after the Cards lost seven times in a 10-game stretch from June 30-July 10, has moved La Russa's charges a half-game in front of Cincinnati for the Central's top spot.

The Cardinals displayed both excellent pitching and plenty of resolve in their sweep of the struggling Dodgers. Co-staff ace Chris Carpenter fired eight dominant innings to lead the way in Thursday's win, while fellow All-Star Adam Wainwright teamed with three relievers on a six-hit shutout as St. Louis registered a 2-0 triumph on Saturday. In Sunday's finale, the Cardinals scored five times over the final two innings to erase a 4-0 deficit, with Allen Craig and Matt Holliday coming through with back-to-back RBI singles with two out in the bottom of the ninth.

"Just a heck of an effort and it got better and better," said La Russa after Sunday's game. "Can't give them enough credit for how they hung in there."

Craig also had a key two-run double during the eighth inning while making a spot start at first base in place of Albert Pujols, with La Russa giving the three-time NL MVP the afternoon off in order to keep him fresh.

VOLQUEZ PROVIDES INSTANT BOOST FOR REDS

Despite having fallen behind the scorching Cardinals in the Central standings, Cincinnati made a move capable of shifting the balance of power in the NL playoff chance this past weekend. And the Reds didn't have to give up anything to do so.

Saturday's game with the Colorado Rockies marked the highly-anticipated return of Reds pitcher Edinson Volquez from an elbow injury that had knocked the gifted right-hander out of action for more than a year. It was well worth the wait, as the 2008 All-Star delivered six dazzling innings in leading Cincy to an 8-1 win.

Volquez held the Rockies to one run and three hits while racking up nine strikeouts in his first time on a major league mound since June 1 of last season. The hard-throwing Dominican also displayed very good command in his comeback start, walking just two batters and throwing 60-of-96 pitches for strikes.

"He was terrific," pitching coach Bryan Price said of Volquez on the Cincinnati website. "You never know what to expect with guys that are coming off this type of a situation. As well as he pitched in his rehab in his last few starts in Triple-A, you still have to deal with the emotions. The team's been playing well, and I'm sure he doesn't want to let them down. I thought he handled it really well."

Volquez, a 17-game winner with over 200 strikeouts for the Reds in 2008, joins a formidable rotation that also contains lynchpins Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto as well as Rookie of the Year candidate Mike Leake. And with youngster Travis Wood acquitting himself well during a recent callup and veteran Aaron Harang nearing a return from a back injury, Cincinnati suddenly sports one of the deepest starting staffs in the National League.

That depth could very well handy in a race where the Reds and Cardinals are among seven teams presently separated by 4 1/2 games competing for the NL's Wild Card berth.

SWEET LOU TO SAY SO LONG

Speculation about Lou Piniella's future was finally put to rest on Tuesday, when the Chicago Cubs manager publicly declared that he would be retiring at the conclusion of the 2010 season. The announcement hardly comes as a surprise, with the fiery field general set to turn 67 years old next month and in the final year of a contract he signed prior to the 2007 campaign.

"I've had four wonderful years here that I wouldn't trade for anything in the world," said Piniella in a statement. "I've grown to love the city and the fans, but at my age it will be time to enter a new phase in my life. It will enable me to spend more valuable time with my family - my wife, my kids and my grandchildren."

This season is Piniella's 23rd as a big-league skipper, and he entered Wednesday's game with Houston ranked 14th on baseball's all-time wins list with a 1,827-1,691 record. One of only five men in major league history to capture three Manager of the Year Awards, the former outfielder has led teams to six division titles -- including back-to-back NL Central crowns with the Cubs in 2007 and 2008 -- and seven postseason appearances as well as a 1990 world championship with the Cincinnati Reds. His 2001 Seattle Mariners tied a regular-season mark with 116 victories that year.

Piniella said his decision to reveal his future plans now instead of at season's end is "what's best for the organization in the long run." The move gives general manager Jim Hendry a head start on evaluating potential successors for Piniella's post, in addition to eliminating any media distractions the uncertainty had been creating.

Guesswork has already begun on whom Hendry will tab as the team's next manager, with Cubs legend Ryne Sandberg thought to be a leading candidate. The Hall of Fame second baseman is currently piloting Chicago's Triple-A affiliate in Iowa and has the I-Cubs in first place in the Pacific Coast League's American North Division.

PIRATES' ALVAREZ HEATING UP

The early results of the Pedro Alvarez era may not have been encouraging, but the Pittsburgh Pirates' prized prospect is beginning to show why he's widely regarded as one of baseball's premier up-and-coming players.

Alvarez, the No. 2 overall selection in the 2008 draft, began his tenure in the majors mired in a 4-for-35 slump, but the talented third baseman has hit safely in 15-of-18 starts since that poor first impression. The 23-year-old has really turned it up a notch as of late, having amassed a .327 average (16- for-49) and belting five homers while knocking in 11 runs over his last 13 games.

The former Vanderbilt star put forth his best showing since his mid-June promotion on Tuesday, swatting a pair of homers and driving in five runs to help the Pirates to a wild 11-9 win over Milwaukee. Alvarez's first long ball of the night was a grand slam that keyed a nine-run first-inning for the Bucs.

The early outburst marked the first time Pittsburgh had scored nine times in the opening frame since the club put up 10 runs in an eventual 15-11 loss at Philadelphia on June 8, 1989.

Alvarez wasn't the only Pirate youngster to make a significant contribution to Tuesday's verdict. Second baseman Neil Walker, Pittsburgh's first-round choice in 2004, went 5-for-5 to raise his season average to .311, while promising outfielder Jose Tabata had a two-run double during the team's first-inning barrage.

"Hitting is contagious, and we certainly showed that," said Walker afterward. "This is certainly something that we are capable of -- big innings like that one."

Walker became the first Pirates rookie to collect five hits in a game since John Wehner did so against Atlanta on July 23, 1991, and the converted catcher has gone a torrid 12-for-19 at the plate over his past four outings.


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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.